Russia - EU - US at the crossroad
Will Russia fall to US new diplomacy strategy?
Trump's upcoming conversation with Putin on March 18 is poised to be a pivotal moment for U.S.-Russia relations. According to sources from TASS, both leaders are expected to engage in crucial discussions about security concerns and the future of their bilateral relationship.
However, Russia will be insisting on the provision of security guarantees in order to ink a peace treaty and they include the neutral status of Ukraine and its refusal to join NATO, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said. This provision has been well documented by Russia in 2021. As long as US would to post their military base or what we can say "the peacekeeper" from NATO, the deal unlikely to happen since what Russia want is their sovereignty with Ukraine.
he U.S. seems to be positioning itself as a hero in the Ukraine-Russia war by advocating for a cease-fire. However, given the recent developments—such as Ukraine launching drones into Moscow and Russia's strong retaliatory response—it appears that a cease-fire is unlikely. The ongoing conflict suggests that the situation is far from resolution, and both sides remain entrenched in their positions. The push for peace may be more optimistic than realistic, especially with the escalating tensions on the ground. (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-drones-strike-fuel-facility-in-russias-astrakhan-oblast-causing-fire-governor-says/).
While US keeps pushing for cease fire, on the other hand it will face a big hurdle from its counter party EU. On 17th March 2025, Hungary's Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto on March 17 denounced EU plans to provide Ukraine with an additional 20 billion euros ($22 billion) in aid, a step allegedly on the agenda of a ministerial meeting in Brussels later the same day.
"We won't be dragged into this; we will not allow Hungarian taxpayers' money to be used to finance arms shipments to Ukraine," Szijjarto said on Facebook, insisting instead that Budapest supports peace negotiations.
On the other hand, the recent tariff by US and EU could be jeopardising trans atlantic business worth of $9.5 trillion as the American Chamber of Commerce of EU warned on Monday.
With Hungary already started to show their view on Ukraine War, newly German elected government that might show same resistance to US. We believe that EU will be at the cross road. EU need to have stance on this geo politic trade war. As a developed country, we believe that EU has to be an independent organization or run off from US tendency to disturb the balance between EU - Russia and even Asia especially China. Without independency, not just EU losing the business with Russia, they potentially might lose business to China as well. As a country, I dont want to be missing out from the rise of China in the next 20 - 30 years.
This strategy is definitely a new strategy implemented by US to capture both EU and Russia as the bigger plan to contain China’s rise ? or Russia will stay in its course? With Russia is winning in few key areas within Ukraine, US does not really have upper hand on getting this deal done.
At the end of the tunnel, what US wants is basically superiority against China and Russia is one of the key moving factor to counter current China’s move. I still have belief that Russia will maintain its axis and the likelihood of Russia fall to US diplomacy strategy is very small.